Portugal Bans Polymarket Over €4M Election Betting Scandal
Portugal's gambling regulator, the Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ), has banned Polymarket following suspicious betting activity surrounding the January 18 presidential election. Over €103 million ($120 million) was wagered on the outcome, with odds shifting dramatically just before results were announced. Socialist candidate António José Seguro saw his probability surge from 60% to over 90% hours before official exit polls—a MOVE that raised red flags for potential insider trading.
The platform, already blocked in over 30 countries, operates without a Portuguese license and violates local laws prohibiting political betting. Only sports, casino games, and horse racing are legally permitted under Portugal's 2015 online gambling framework. This incident mirrors recent controversies involving Polymarket, where timing and scale of bets have repeatedly suggested non-public information influenced markets.
